V2.37
About Our Broken Politics, Broken Media, Broken Republic
Researching in the Post-truth Era
Related Resources:
WWII Recovery Analysis
Income Disparity (Log Scale)
Income Disparity (Linear Scale)
Tax Policy Summary
Democracy Voucher Analysis
Recently I remarked to a friend that "Alan Porter is the most accurate plate umpire in the MLB". His reply was "In your opinion". This is the way of the world in 2025, everyone has their own opinion but few take the time to have the facts.
Depending on who you listen to the US is headed to either a Golden Age or a fascist dictatorship. Considering this disparity, a voter armed with the facts is needed more than ever, even more so as the mid-term elections are coming up.
Depending on who you listen to, the US is headed to either a Golden Age or a fascist dictatorship. Considering this disparity, an informed voter is needed more than ever as the mid-term elections are coming up.
Most of my engineering career was spent in R & D labs. Beliefs mean nothing when developing a product—only knowledge solves problems, and knowledge only comes from effective research.
Research has changed radically in fifty years. Libraries, public and private, were the main source then. Now we have everything at our fingertips including vast troves of bullshit.
Fifty years ago an expert could have a book published and be paid for it. Now any moron can get equal footing with the experienced, AND make money from it. Laboring under misconceptions is endemic these days and is dangerous to our republic and our culture.
So here are some suggestions for doing better research:
Multiple Search Engines
This is by far the best way to do good research. Google, Bing, DuckDuckGo and others present similar, if not identical search results. All of these engines claim to target advertising but not search results.
If you search for "trump 17 trillion investment" the results will be similar (and disturbing).
Fact Checkers
"You can have your own opinion but not your own facts"
There are many fact checkers around the world. The Poynter Foundation is an institution that registers fact checkers that meet a code of ethics.
[The Poynter Foundation]These meet the IFCN Code of Principles and are signatories:
[IFCN Signatories]Reputable Fact-Checking Sources:
- snopes.com
- factcheck.org
- politiFact.com
- reuters.com/fact-check/
- apnews.com
- checkyourfact.com
- leadstories.com
- allsides.com (not IFCN signatory, useful for conservative view)
- npr.org (not IFCN signatory, useful for liberal view)
This is not to say that these sites are completely unbiased. It is useful to compare sources and look for consensus.
It is notable that Fox News, OANN, Newsmax, The Daily Wire, The American Conservative, The National Review, and Breitbart do not have fact checkers.
It should also be noted that the parties and people in power will receive the most attention from fact checkers. This does not imply bias, but is simply a focus on the most important issues of the day.
What Is Our Confidence Level?
It is a very human thing to be overly confident. With humility we can apply a confidence percentage to the things that we believe. 100% confidence is almost impossible.
[Watch: Confidence Video]Who Is It?
If it's a non-profit institution or a think tank, it is useful to look up who provides the funding. Nonprofits must have written policies in place to manage and prevent conflicts of interest. Nonprofits are, in general, good sources of information but can be biased—be aware.
Government Sources
Government sources at the local, state, and federal levels are all generally good sources of information, but can be biased by the executive branch and other influences. The most reliable government information is that which is needed for a healthy economy such as weather reports, economic performance history, and foreign travel advisories.
Academic Sources
Academic sources such as universities and colleges are usually excellent sources of information. However, what may be an informed, erudite opinion from an individual within the institution may not be representative of the institution as a whole. Watch for those "in-my-opinion" moments.
Mainstream Media
Mainstream media includes network and cable TV outlets as well as large news organizations. These are generally reliable but can be biased. It is useful to compare sources and look for consensus. Be aware that opinion pieces are not news reporting.
Social Media
Social media is not a reliable source of information. It is useful for entertainment and staying in touch with friends and family, but should not be considered a source of factual information without verification from reputable sources.
Understanding Context and Terminology
Words matter. It is helpful to look up the definitions of commonly used words and phrases. The terms "liberal education," "liberal democracy," and "liberal politics" mean completely different things.
The terms "socialist economy," "socialist democracy," and "socialist communism" mean completely different things.
In our Constitution the words "People" and "citizens" are distinctly different. The "People" refers to all people within our borders and the basic rights that they are granted. The word "citizens" refers to eligibility for participation in our government, including voting.
Charts and Statistics
"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics" — Mark Twain (maybe)
Charts can be misleading:
Chart 1 - Inflation during the first year of the Biden administration. Looks pretty bad.
Chart 2 - Inflation during the first year of the first Trump administration. Looks pretty good.
Chart 3 - Inflation from 2005 to 2025
The green line marks the inflation rate minimum in January 1954.
The yellow line marks the inflation rate maximum in January 1947.
The red line marks the average inflation rate since WWII.
Understanding Chart Manipulation:
These three graphs illustrate the effect of scale and scope when presenting graphical data. The rate of inflation indicated in Chart 1 looks to be climbing quickly. The rate of inflation indicated in Chart 2 looks to be stable. But note the difference in the scales of Chart 1 vs Chart 2—clearly misleading.
The scope of a graph is also important to put the data in context. Chart 3 shows the inflation rate from 2005 to 2025. Note the dip in inflation after the 2008 economic meltdown. Note that the inflation rate was relatively stable from 2011 to 2021, which was the beginning of the Covid pandemic disruptions. Note the minimum, maximum, and average inflation reference lines.
The take-away here is that politicians spew bullshit. Terms like "unprecedented inflation" and the blame games played are smoke screens. We deserve better.
Some General Rules:
- Look it up. All manner of crap gets in the media. Verify!
- Anecdotal accounts. In a country of 340 million almost anything will happen. Is it significant?
- Be suspicious of one-word quotes. Many times an article will be pages of opinion but few actual quotes.
- Be aware of overgeneralization.
- Saying something over and over doesn't make it true.
- Finding out that you are correct gets you nowhere. Finding out when you are wrong gets you closer to reality.
- Be aware of natural bias. We inherently fear "the other" for good evolutionary reasons, but this response must be tempered.
- Be suspicious but not cynical.
For any comments, critical or not, please email me at:
